Saturday, July 11, 2009

How to raise a Hall of Fame hitter

If you're going to shoot for the Pros with your young slugger in mind, why would you stop at a cup of coffee. You put all that money into baseball camps, private hitting coaches, showcases, and all you want is for your son to reach the Major Leagues? Come on--they're a dime a dozen. Let's work towards a Hall of Fame career.

But how do you do that? A look at the Hall of Fame hitters for the last 20 years (1989-2009) yields some interesting information.

It seems that while fathers all over the baseball world are impressed with their little guys hitting the seams off the whiffle ball, then the baseball, they should really be looking at whether or not he can take a base. Yes, take a walk.

The average Hall of Fame hitter from Henderson and Rice way back to Bench and Yastrzemski walked every 8.37 at bats. The best walkers were Joe Morgan (4.97) and Rickey Henderson (5.01). The biggest hacker was Kirby Puckett at one walk every 16.10 at bats. Take out these extremes and the rest of the hitter still walked once every 8.86 at bats.

Patience is a one virtue that is not rewarded at youth levels, high school, and even college levels. If a player walks at a showcase baseball camp, the option is usually offered to send in a "pinch" runner and allow the hitter to swing away. Being able to take pitches and walk runs up pitch counts and it puts runners on base ("A walk's just as good as a hit," my middle school coach used to say).

The question is: does patience and a good eye lead to higher batting averages? A question for another day....

Thanks baseballhalloffame.org, baseball-reference.com

Friday, July 10, 2009

Guys hitting in front of pitchers--not the easy out they used to be?

Growing up in the 70s and 80s, it was a given that a weak hitting NL shortstop would be plugged into the 8th hole right in front of the pitcher.

In a recent study of 162 random games from June, it seems that the number 8 hitter is no long a slouch.

In this "season" the number 8 hitter batted .261 with seven homers and 47 runs batted in. "He" scored 59 runs in 536 at bats, hit 21 doubles and had six sac bunts.

Number 8 batters don't walk as much as one might expect (43) since pitchers with the bases empty and two outs don't really need to pitch to this person. Part of this may also do with the fact that managers tend to bat players who can draw walks further up in the line-up.

But when you look at a couple of guys I remember hitting in the 8th hole, Larry Bowa and Ted Sizemore, you're talking about .260 and .262 lifetime hitters respectively. Both had homer-to-at-bat ratios that were much lower to the one in the above-mentioned sample.

Thanks: baseball-almanac.com

Helping your own cause

It's one of those overused clichés in baseball: if a pitcher gets a hit and especially if he drives in a run or scores, he's helped his own cause.

But is really? Does it make a difference that pitchers like the Cubs' Carlos Zambrano and the Reds' Micah Owings can hit?

A random analysis suggests that it can. I looked at 33 random starts (Group A) made by National league pitchers with 33 being considered a full season. I then looked at 33 starts made by National League pitchers who had either gotten a hit, a walk, or a sacrifice bunt (Group B).

Group A pitchers hit .103 (6 for 58) with an OPct. of .133. They had two walks and six sacrifice bunts. As a "pitcher" they combined for a record of 10-13 in 203 innings with a 3.72 ERA. They averaged 98 pitches per start.

Group B pitchers hit, of course much better, posting a .341 (15 for 44) batting average with an OPCT of .453. These pitchers walked 6 times and had 18 sac bunts. They logged much fewer at bats than Group A pitchers due to the higher number of walks and sac bunts. And it would seem that hitting better made a difference. Their record was an impressive 17-6. Although these pitchers had achieved something positive at the plate, they didn't log as many innings (187) and they averaged five less pitches per start (93). Their ERA was also higher at 3.99.

An interesting follow-up: how well does a pitcher do who YIELDS a positive result by an opposing pitcher? Does it work negatively on a pitcher's psyche if he doesn't convert what "should" be an easy out?

If you look at the pitchers from 1986 to 2006 who led the National League in hitting, they share an interesting aspect: longevity. (I excluded Brooks Kieschnick who in 2003 was 21 for 70 but his at bats were primarily pinch hitting appearances as he was a seldom-used reliever with 42 appearances) Pitchers in this time span averaged a career length of 14 years. Only four of the seasons were represented by pitchers with less than 10 years in the Majors.

Above all, you might say that these pitchers were superb athletes. For this 20-year "career", the pitchers compiled a record of 261-212 for a WPCT of .552.

Wes Ferrell (193 wins) was perhaps the strongest hitting pitcher of all time. This 15-year veteran from the late 20s to the early 40s hit .280 with 38 home runs, the most by a pitcher who pitched his entire career (Babe Ruth hit 714 homers, but...). Ferrell, like Micah Owings today, was an oft-used pinch hitter. Not as often, though, as Red Lucas (157 wins from the early 20s to the late 30s). Lucas didn't show the power that Ferrell did, but his teams relied on him to pinch hit for a total of 437 at bats resulting in 114 hits.

Thanks: baseball-reference.com, thebaseballcube.com, sportsillustrated.com