Friday, October 30, 2009

How did Bob Gibson lose 9 games in 1968?













Ever since I was a kid collecting baseball cards, I've wondered how Bob Gibson could've ended up with any losses in 1968, let alone come within one loss of breaking double digits.

Why? His league-leading mark for the 1968 NL Pennant-winning Cardinals: a 1.12 ERA.

We're not talking about his World Series ERA. That was an unsightly 1.67 in three complete-game starts. After winning his first two starts and striking out 27 batters, he lost Game 7 to Mickey Lolich and a slightly better Tigers team 4-1.

No, Bob Gibson did something in 1968 that no one has come close to since that year and what only three other pitchers in the history of the game have bettered. And they pitched in the 1800s and early 1900s.

In 1968, Gibson pitched 304 2/3 innings and gave up 38 earned runs. No one pitches close to 300 innings any more so to put this into perspective, let's take a pitcher who pitches 204 2/3 innings. If he only gives up 38 runs, his ERA would be 1.67. Since 1968, only two pitchers have come in under that mark: Luis Tiant (1.60) and Greg Maddux twice (1.56, 1.63).

So how does a pitcher who barely gave up more than a run every nine innings go 22-9?

Five of Gibson's losses came in his first eight decisions. After those 10 starts, his ERA was 1.52. Aside from his first loss of the season, a 5-1 "blow-out" to the Cubs, the next four were barn-burners: 3-2, 1-0, 2-0 and 3-1.

Gibson then rattled off 15 wins between June 2 and August 19. After the first 12 of those wins, the Cubs once again found away to beat the Cards, winning 6-5 in a no-decision for Gibson. Before this game, Gibson's ERA had fallen below a buck: 0.96. Ten of the 15 wins were shutouts!

Despite a 1.20 ERA in his last 11 starts, including three more shutouts, Gibson could only manage a record of 7-4. His losses: 6-4, 3-2, 1-0 and 3-2.

One might have expected 30 wins from Bob Gibson in 1968. Afterall, his AL Cy Young winning counterpart finished 31-6 in 41 starts. It's important to note, though, that Denny McLain's run support outpaced that of Gibson's by almost 75%! McLain enjoyed 5.23 runs-per-game average against his 1.96 ERA, while Gibson's Cards could only muster a bit more than three runs per game (3.03).

Juan Marichal, 26-9, had an ERA more than twice as high as Gibson's (2.43), but Marichal's run support was 62% more than Gibson's at 4.91.

His impact on the National League. The league ERA for the season was 2.99, yes, much lower than we'll ever see again. However, take Gibson's season out of the mix and the league ERA jumps three points to 3.02!

On a final note, you can look at Gibson's amazing season on Baseball Reference. And the many other great pitching seasons. In all, seven pitchers finished the season with ERAs below 2.00, and it was a year that the AL had only one qualifying batter to finish about .300: Carl Yastrzemski with his league-leading .301.

But what you can't see as readily is the season of pitching against Bob Gibson in 1968. Imagine pulling that duty. Here's how they did in 34 starts (including a Gaylord Perry no-hitter!):

CG:9-----IP:234 1/3-----W-L:8-21
H:202-----R:81-----ER:68-----SO:159
BB:54-----SHO:3-----ERA:2.61-----HR:10

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